I’m seriously considering asking the local cops if I can compare their blotter reports to the phases of the moon, look for a correlation… correlation might occur in rural areas based on the light levels required to see well enough to steal… technically what I really wondered was if slightly increased light levels could have an impact on crime here.
It was a question presented on Twitter. Perfectly reasonable one, about crime and the moon.
“Do Ninja Kitties steal more when there’s a full moon?”
In short, no, Ninja Kitties do what they like and don’t need no moon to swipe sardines. They are usually more influenced by iPod tunes, especially when driving fast!
Okay, that’s not actually the question. I just wanted to post the advert, because it’s cute. But there is evidence that demonstrates that there is no correlation between the phases of the moon and all sorts of things, despite popular belief.
This also includes some very good questions about how you possibly could ever link it to crime rates in rural areas -- as how do you define crime? What factors make definitions of ‘crime’ change? And shouldn’t we be not just looking at moon-myths, but what we do know makes definite contributions to criminal behaviour? But doing the research to check whether there was evidence was quite fun.
The cultural connection between the moon and insanity (lunacy, loonies -- in Spanish, “esta en la luna” means 
absent-mindedness) is well known, but not demonstrated by research to be true. Since a new Hollywood film, featuring lycanthropy and vampires has appeared (Underworld: Rise Of The Lycans) I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s people checking those stories too and considering if fiction is also inspired by… well, fiction!
I once had some fun trying to organise them by dates. Such as, back in 1968.
Bauer SF, & Hornlck EJ. (1968) Lunar effect on mental Illness: the relationship of moon phase to psychiatric emergencies. American Journal of Psychiatry,125, p.696-7.
No correlation shown.
And there’s plenty more studies that demonstrate no correlation between the phases or purported influence of the moon and many other things since that time:
- Geller SH & Shannon, HW. (1976). The moon, weather and mental hospital contacts: confirmation and explanation of the Transylvania effect. J Psychlatr Nurs Ment Health Serv 1976; 14: 13-7 -- no correlation -- how’s that for a cool name? ‘Transylvania effect’!
- Hicks-Caskey WE & Potter DR (1991). Effect of the full moon on a sample of developmentally delayed, institutionalized women. Percept Mot Skills, 72: 1375-80. -- no correlation.
- Gorvtn J.J., Roberts MS (1994). Lunar phases and psychiatric hospital admissions. Psychol Rep,75: 1435-40. - no correlation.
- Owen C, Tarantello C, Jones M, & Tennant C. (1998). Lunar cycles and violent behaviour. Aust NZJ Psychiatry, 32: 496-9 -- no correlation. And in Australia / NZ!
- Nunez S, Perez Mendez L, & Aguirre-Jaime A. (2002). Moon cycles and violent behaviours: myth or fact? Eur J Emerg Med, 9: 127-30 - no correlation.
- Bhattacharjee C. Bradley P, Smith M, Scally AJ. & Wilson BJ (2000) Do animals bite more during a full moon: retrospective observational analysis. BMJ,321: 1559-61 -- if you wondered if Fido was behind it all… no correlation.
I particularly like the notes for this one: Barking mad? Another lunatic hypothesis bites the dust -
Contributors: SC was bitten by the hypothesis, fetched the data, and reviewed the literature. SM analysed the data and inserted the worst puns.
Now, one of the most recent (and fun) papers I found -- got into a little ‘space technology’ with checking whether it had an influence on coronary artery disease!
Fukuda D (2007) -- ‘The effect of the gravitation of the moon on acute myocardial infarction‘, in the American journal of emergency medicine. And yes, it means sod all:
A number of studies have reported a daily and yearly variation in the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI)… It has been shown that the circadian variation of AMI is the result of an increase in the incidence of plaque rupture during the morning hours. These studies have shown a relation between the solar motion and the occurrence of AMI. Less information is available regarding the effect of the moon on coronary artery disease. Previous reports have shown lunar phases do not relate to the occurrence of AMI…The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between the occurrence of AMI and the gravitation of the moon.
This is what kind of makes it cool -- they got NASA software to help out!
The distance from the center of the moon to the center of the earth was calculated with the NASA’s Software: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Solar System Simulator, http://space.jpl.nasa.gov/. Universal gravitation of the moon was derived by G * m/d2 (G is universal gravitation constant, 6.67259 × 10?11m3 s?2 kg?1; m is the magnitude of the moon; d is the distance between the center of the moon and the center of the earth). The relationship between m/d2 and the cases of AMI were determined…
… the number of patients with AMI does not change significantly every 3 days. Therefore, the lunar phase does not relate to the occurrence of AMI.
But back on topic -- the original question was about crime rate in rural areas and the moon phases. It kind of relates to the NASA element above, because people have asked them:
NASA said no -- “Scientific studies done to isolate this have, however, shown *no* correlation, contrary to the beliefs of those involved. In other words, the Moon’s phase doesn’t seem to have any affect on the number of crimes committed and babies born”.
What of other studies? The one that most people should find easily is one done in India and published in the BMJ back in 1984 -- Full moon and crime:
The incidence of crimes reported to three police stations in different towns (one rural, one urban, one industrial) was studied to see if it varied with the day of the lunar cycle. The period of the study covered 1978-82. The incidence of crimes committed on full moon days was much higher than on all other days, new moon days, and seventh days after the full moon and new moon.
Wait a minute -- check this bit out:
…The increased incidence of crimes on full moon days may be due to “human tidal waves” caused by the gravitational pull of the moon.
Now, that should have you thinking ‘wha???’ -- due to gravitational pull?? Okay, what other studies were done? There has to be better reasoning than this! There’s also some 1998 Canadian research, investigating about 250,000 traffic accidents that provoked property damage or nonfatal injuries over a 9 year period, which encountered no link to the moon phase.
What about domestic violence crimes? Isn’t that crime too? The effect of lunar phases on domestic violence incident rates:
‘The results of the study showed that there was no relationship between lunar phases and incidents of domestic violence. In addition to this, the data clearly displayed that regardless of lunar phase, whether full moon or new, the average number of incidents was the same.’
See, it also depends on ‘how you define crime’. Are traffic accidents in a rural area that result in a criminal convinction considered to be ‘crime’?
Let’s head to the NSW Publications and Statistics on Crime. In fact: ‘What Causes Crime‘ (pdf 97Kb) a paper from 2001. There’s a good point about location plus weather and crime that relates to this question:
Finally, while most research examining the relationship between the weather and crime is far from definitive, there is consistent evidence of a link between daily temperature and assault rates. This may be because hot weather reduces a person’s tolerance to frustration or because hot weather simply brings motivated offenders and potential victims into more frequent contact with one another (e.g. at outdoor social events).
…As with individuals, places can be rendered crime-prone by a variety of factors. The most common characteristics of crime-prone neighbourhoods are poverty, unemployment and income inequality. In areas characterised by these problems one frequently finds a breakdown in the level of informal social control exercised by local residents against people who threaten to commit crime. Crime also tends to become concentrated at particular locations where there are increased opportunities or incentives for committing crime. Sometimes these opportunities give rise to gangs and/or other criminal organisations which further exacerbate crime, both locally and elsewhere.
…Because crime is not the result of any single factor or combination of factors, it makes no sense to seek to control crime by any single strategy or set of strategies. A mix of strategies will always be appropriate.
Finally -- what about the crimes reported? Changes in law can have an influence on reporting when they happened. Have a look at the WA results recently released:
In June 2008, the Centre released its report on WA’s crime figures for 2006. In part, the report noted that homicide rates, robberies and reported rates of sexual assault had not increased over the past 10 years. However, it did discuss that reported assault rates had increased as a result of changes to family and domestic violence legislation and by improved recording capabilities and strategies within WA Police to encourage reporting of these offences.
I guess the last word should go to the Editor in Chief, Richard Tresch Fienberg of Sky & Telescope Magazine, September, 2007 with his editorial ‘Full MoonFever‘:
According to a statement from the Sussex Police, quoted in the AP story, ‘Research carried out by us has shown a correlation between violent incidents and full Moons…’… these were based… on one inspector’s examination of Brighton’s crime statistics from April 2006 through March 2007. Aware that no careful scientific study has ever found a correlation between the phase of the moon and any aspect of human behaviour… I soon recieved a plot of the numbers of offenses recorded on weekends versus the phase of the moon… Yes, there are peaks and valleys, but all are perfectly consistent with random statistical variations. The graph prepared by the Sussex Police actually shows more peaks in criminal activity on weekends near new Moon than near full Moon or any other phase -- but again, these are just random fluctuations.
Look -- I suggest you check out Eric Chudler’s Neuroscience for Kids site, which has a great page listing the outcomes of dozens of studies of lunar cycles and violence, suicide, depression, animal bites, accidents, drugs overdoses and emergency room calls. There’s also a nice article over at National Geographic, and some informative pages on lunar influence myths on the Skeptic’s Dictionary and as you can see, I’ve searched PubMed and PsychINFO. Apart from ONE study in India, back in 1984 -- there just isn’t a case in either the studies on crime, let alone the studies on the moon.
I suggest you keep the car keys away from the ninja cats, regardless. They make the upholstery stink of tuna.
Select References:
Hicks-Caskey WE, & Potter DR (1991). Effect of the full moon on a sample of developmentally delayed, institutionalized women. Perceptual and motor skills, 72 (3 Pt 2), 1375-80 PMID: 1817481
Núñez S, Pérez Méndez L, & Aguirre-Jaime A (2002). Moon cycles and violent behaviours: myth or fact? European journal of emergency medicine : official journal of the European Society for Emergency Medicine, 9 (2), 127-30 PMID: 12131634
Bhattacharjee C, Bradley P, Smith M, Scally AJ, & Wilson BJ (2000). Do animals bite more during a full moon? Retrospective observational analysis. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 321 (7276), 1559-61 PMID: 11124173
{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
I wonder if there was ever a statistical increase in crime during full moon? The original question seems to tie to the “rural” effect being tied to lighting issues, but the legend always talks about “moon madness” or the like.
In some ways it makes sense that you’d have enough light to get something done in the dark – but in other ways it seems like escaping in the dark would be easier when the moon is not up.
It would be an interesting thing to see graphed from the time before electric lights went up ’round the world. (Though I suppose gas-lights did as much to dismiss the night as electric lights do today…)
Heyah! That is an awesome compilation of data. Unfortunately, I didn’t specify the parameters I was thinking about enough – twitter is lovely for its brevity but not particularly useful for thoroughness.
I think I should rethink my query, in that “violence” was perhaps a behavioral selection I shouldn’t have specified; I was skipping to measurements before describing the data I wanted to collect. The real question might be, does human activity after sunset show an increase during “full” moons in areas where there are few/no electric lights? Don’t get frustrated – it’s a true scientific and logical query, not a mystical one dressed in a labcoat. Read on!
In other words, no psuedo-tidal crap, but basic light levels: as a species we are strongly biased in favor of visual observation of our surroundings. If we can’t see, we hold still. A full moon in a desert lets you see well enough to move around easily; starlight does not. Does ambient light in this setting mean people will move around more or do we stick with the habit of sleep?
To see if there was a difference, you’d have to rule out most of the previous studies you mentioned based on their environment – inside buildings (institutions) have controlled light levels (and premedicated people in controlled environments are a poor selection for measuring our normal wake/sleep habits based on ambient light). You’d have to rule out areas with heavy cloud cover like the UK or Washington state, where the ambient light would be too low to see regardless of whether or not there was a full moon overhead. (Actually, that would be an interesting control to dismiss all those theories that it’s the presence of the moon that does it, regardless of our ability to see the light). You’d have to rule out cities with loads of artificial light – we already see that activity rises after dark in those areas when the lights are on every night. Which is interesting in itself, as the only difference between artificial light and moonlight to us is light intensity and regularity of presence; how much impact does that extra intensity and that regularity have on weather we use it to move around or not?
Your basic study population would be people living in communities with an *unobstructed* view of the night sky and little to no external artificial light in their community, with the control of populations living with an *obstructed* view of the night sky and little to no artificial external artificial light.
Since human activity would include as a subset violent activity, police blotter reports would be one way to track such an uptick; the India one, while reaching a faulty conclusion (some sort of mystical tide thing) might actually contain the data sets relevant to the specific scenario I wondered about since in the 80s most of their population lived without external artificial light at night. It’s harder to find that sort of population these days; what brought it to mind was the fact that I currently live in the middle of one of the darkest expanses of desert in the world, and a local astronomer complained in the local paper about light pollution from the town streetlights & sporting venue lights.
Basically you’re looking to see if extra light a couple nights a month is a strong enough motivation to get out and do stuff at night to override the habit of sleeping at night; if people want that extra time more than they want their sleep and are willing to disrupt their schedule to get it.
If (and that is a big if) the study were to show a positive correlation between the extra light and human activity, then you could extrapolate that data back to times when we had no artificial lights and begin to see the root cause of the myth – people seeing a real increase and not knowing why might ascribe all sorts of motivations to the increased activity, as is seen in the Indian study.
Okay, I’m going to break down the argument now being proposed by LW – see if this is correct. Because what seems to be proposed now is more about circadian rhythms and human behavior in regions where there is more natural light. And I can think of an example on the planet where there is research into this – Arctic summers.
What I think you’re now making an argument for is not so much to do with the moon – but with light. The moon’s light and gravitational pull doesn’t have as much distinct influence as sunlight, in terms of brightness and in terms of research into its influence. So, if you’re looking at ‘light’, why not look at the influence of sunlight?
* does human activity after sunset show an increase during “full” moons in areas where there are few/no electric lights?
Then you’re going to have to have a very skewed population element, because areas with few/no lights are usually underpopulated, am I right? I would also point out that what you’re NOW asking is going over a wide range of questions involving things like circadian rhythms, perhaps? I can think of an area of the world where there is an example of what you’re saying – the ‘White Nights / Midnight Sun’ regions where there is a correlation between additional light and suicide / violence:
From this paper: “What happens to humans during the arctic summer? Lifestyle changes in a number of ways, and people spend more time outdoors. Sexual activity increases (Shakespeare, 1939), and so does violent behavior (Morken and Linaker, 2000) along with hormonal changes. Melatonin is suppressed by light, and people tend to sleep less. Lack of sleep is a risk factor for a number of psychiatric disorders, such as depression, mania, delirium, and psychosis. Several studies have shown seasonal variations with summer peaks in blood serotonin levels. It has also been demonstrated that increased luminosity increases brain serotonin turnover in men (Lambert et al., 2002) and that blood serotonin levels correlate to violence in men (Moffitt et al., 1998).
Seasonal Variation of Violence in Norway:
…The monthly frequency of violence correlated with the absolute value of monthly change in length of day from the previous month. In the seven cities the highest monthly ratio of observed to expected frequencies increased with latitude. With increasing latitude, the months with the largest increase in violence came later both in the spring and in the fall. CONCLUSIONS: There is a distinct pattern of seasonal variation in the frequency of violence that varies systematically with latitude. This pattern resembles the seasonal pattern of some forms of suicide, hospitalization for affective disorders, and mood and activity in the general population.
* Does ambient light in this setting mean people will move around more or do we stick with the habit of sleep?
Again – I’d suggest checking out sleep behaviour and things like jet lag, too? Whether or not that’s going to correlate with particular sorts of crime, is another question – there’s already been studies on ‘what contributes to criminal behaviour’ and that’s in the blogpost.
* the India one, while reaching a faulty conclusion (some sort of mystical tide thing) might actually contain the data sets relevant to the specific scenario I wondered about since in the 80s most of their population lived without external artificial light at night.
Sorry – what evidence do you have that in the 1980s that there wasn’t electricity in India?
* Basically you’re looking to see if extra light a couple nights a month is a strong enough motivation to get out and do stuff at night to override the habit of sleeping at night; if people want that extra time more than they want their sleep and are willing to disrupt their schedule to get it.
Again – start looking into areas like those up near Greenland and whether it is more likely to overrule circadian rhythms? There’s evidence in research for that. But the influence of the moon really doesn’t seem to be as strong. There just isn’t as much light as you seem to imply, really…
LW – You’ve seem to have forgotten what Dr Atlantis also mentions. Doesn’t it seem odd that lots of light to see – doesn’t also mean ‘lots of light to get caught by’? I’m also mindful that the police are people who often have shift-rosters to get the job done, and there’s already been research into how there are skewed impressions about crime rates and the moon. So, although your point about crime rates being recorded is one good indicator, I think the area of the world you should now be looking at has somewhat changed and also perhaps the time of day?
Ah ha! I think I found why you mentioned India:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_in_India
Then I guess if you were able to look at crime rates in India – and tried to take out all of the factors such as poverty, over-population, unemployment, inequality, lack of education… erm.
No, I don’t see how moonlight can really still be seen as a significantly contributing factor in that case either… :/
Great post! I find it odd how even despite all the studies, there’s people still trying to go on about the phases of the moon in addition, as if it makes any difference. It’s. A. Lump. Of. Rock, it is TOO DAMNED FAR to have an effect on people. People have to take responsibility for their own actions!
It may be true that there is no definative proof of a correlation between the phases of the moon and crime, even rural crime in areas where there is a lack of artificial light at night. It is an undisputable reality that the moon phases greatly affect visibility at night.
Certain rural crimes such as poaching, especially poaching with dogs, requires clandestine movement through the bush. In these instances natural light provided by the moon can be desired or avoided.
A moonlit night can significantly improve visibility for both man and dog and would as such be ideal for poachers, but simelarly so, for any anti-poaching initiative and as such the lighter periods may be avoided for this very reason.
There are also various other factors, which influence times chosen to commit rural crimes, which are not related to moon phases. These may include pension payouts, holidays, weekends, specific demands, law enforcement presences and the list goes on.
Poaching done on any given light phase, may have occured on a cloudy or rainy day, which would render the statistical data for these incidents irrelevant. Poachers are not always reliant on the natural light and lighter or darker periods may be preferred by different groups or the moon phases may be inconsequential in the planning of rural crime.
For the above reasons it is difficult to prove the theory that the phases of the moon influence rural crime, despite evidence suggesting a correlation and testimony from poachers and experts in the nature conservation industry.
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